Arkansas bowl hopes hinge on three wins in a tough final five

Arkansas’ bowl hopes boil down to one number and it’s simply three.

Win three more games, and the Razorbacks go bowling. Come up short, and not much else about this season will move the needle.

That number looks a lot bigger once you check who’s left.

Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina, Texas and LSU. All have shocking wins this season and some unexpected losses. There isn’t a cupcake in the bunch.

Even folks who’d love to stay upbeat admit a bowl trip is a long shot. Truth is, that’s no shock.

Few people had this team circled for the postseason back in the summer.

Still, there’s a reason to keep the TV on in case you slept through the last few weekends. The SEC has gone sideways this fall.

The SEC keeps flipping the script

Florida rolled past Ole Miss. Then the Gators got crushed by South Carolina. After that, they knocked off Texas.

Auburn took down Georgia while the Bulldogs were No. 1.

Oklahoma did the same to Texas when the Longhorns held the top spot.

Ryan Silverfield has noticed. The Arkansas coach talked about the chaos Wednesday.

“What it shows you is that any given Saturday, anybody’s capable, and I think that gives our guys that hope, belief we see,” Silverfield said.

He even poked fun at himself.

“As much of a square as I am, I do have a little bit of understanding of what’s going on in college football and the landscape,” he said.

The Hogs need that belief. Talent alone won’t carry them.

How remaining opponents look right now

Ole Miss just ran Missouri off the field.

Auburn has been up one week and down the next.

Which South Carolina team shows up is anyone’s guess. The Gamecocks could arrive at Razorback Stadium with someone new running the sideline on an interim basis.

Texas and quarterback Arch Manning have wobbled lately, and that’s an opening. That’s surprised everyone since they stunned Ohio State early in the season that proved it’s good for a week and that’s it.

LSU’s 5-2 mark looks solid on paper. The Tigers just haven’t played like the team people expected in August.

That doesn’t make any of these games easy. But the other guy isn’t a lock in a single one of them either.

The Razorbacks proved they can win on the road when they beat a struggling Vanderbilt 31-21. Winning three of the last five against this group is a much taller order.

Why 4-8 still beats 3-9

A lot of fans will shrug at all this. If there’s no bowl, who cares if it’s 3-9 or 5-7?

The reality is it probably doesn’t make much a difference. Feeling better over four wins is an easy way to feel after the year this has been.

The math is a little more interesting than that, though.

Talent’s thin on this roster. So is the money behind it. We’ve been assured that’s going to drastically improve this off-season but nobody’s offering up any evidence that can really happen.

Maybe it will or it could disappear and everybody tries to forget the original claims.

Arkansas sits near the bottom of the SEC in roster spending. A bunch of Power Four schools spent less.

Some of them are winning anyway. Houston spent between $15 million and $19 million. The Cougars are 6-1, ranked No. 14 and getting ready for No. 10 Utah.

Iowa spent between $17 million and $21 million. The Hawkeyes are No. 15 with a 5-1 record.

Wake Forest spent between $16 million and $20 million. The Demon Deacons sit second in the ACC at 6-1.

None of those folks play in the SEC, though. It’s a brutal schedule for every team these days and we’re find out last week has absolutely nothing to do with this week.

Each win from here pays off later

That’s why a fourth or fifth win carries weight, even if it won’t fix the bigger problems.

It would give Silverfield breathing room from the 2-10 seasons of the Chad Morris and Sam Pittman eras. That cellar got old a long time ago.

Stack two or three SEC wins with this group, and imagine what a better roster could do next fall. It would provide some much-needed hope.

A bigger roster budget could be coming in 2027. Fans and some media will believe it when they see it.

The playoff field is jumping to 24 teams. Down the road, that makes 9-3 the new goal line for the Hogs.

Every win this fall would be a small step toward that.

Three more wins would make this season count. Even one or two would help. Go 0-5, though, and it’ll be a long winter in Fayetteville.