Razorbacks open season strong; early analytics preview Michigan State test

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas began the 2025-26 men’s basketball season with a convincing 109-77 win over Southern on Monday at Bud Walton Arena.

The performance gave fans an early glimpse of the Razorbacks’ balance, tempo, and shot-making under second-year coach John Calipari and it’s a little early to really dive deep on the numbers.

The body of work to base any judgement on simply isn’t enough, but it might be worth being aware what they were.

Arkansas shot 50.7 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from deep, hitting 10 of 28 attempts beyond the arc. The Razorbacks also out-rebounded Southern 45-37, recording 23 assists and three players scoring more than 20 points.

The victory briefly pushed Arkansas into the Top 25 of KenPom’s efficiency ratings before other results dropped them just outside that range. Early indicators show a team that can score efficiently and share the ball well.

As Calipari noted in the preseason, the Razorbacks’ goal is to play fast and control the paint — two areas where Monday’s game delivered strong results.

Early analytics provide baseline insight

One game into the year, it’s far too soon to draw deep conclusions from statistical models. But analytics help sketch a starting point.

Arkansas currently ranks 14th in the Associated Press Poll, 15th in the Coaches Poll, 26th in KenPom, 15th in BartTorvik, 39th in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), and 19th in EvanMiya’s player-impact ratings.

KenPom had Arkansas at No. 29 entering the opener, and the team moved up three spots after the win.

That gain reflects efficiency improvements, though it also mirrors early-season volatility as programs face different levels of competition.

Offensively, Arkansas ranks 19th nationally in scoring at 109 points per game, while allowing 77 points places them 163rd defensively.

The Hogs’ 23 assists (26th in Division I) demonstrate improved ball movement, a focal point of Calipari’s system. They also rank in the top 30 nationally in free-throw percentage (86.2) and turnover control (11.1 percent, per KenPom).

Offense leading early charge

KenPom’s adjusted efficiency model shows Arkansas producing 116.8 points per 100 possessions (23rd nationally) while allowing 95.9 points (28th).

The Razorbacks’ effective field-goal percentage of 57.5 is top-70 nationally, and their turnover rate ranks in the top 30.

Arkansas also ranks 90th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.9) and 101st in defensive rebound rate (27.9), suggesting solid second-chance control but room for growth.

Their two-point field-goal percentage of 60 ranks 61st nationally, another sign of early inside dominance.

For context, KenPom’s rankings adjust for tempo, strength of opponent, and possession length. According to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, Arkansas ranks 32nd in average possession length (14.4 seconds) on offense, an indicator of an uptempo, aggressive style.

While the metrics will fluctuate as the schedule toughens, Arkansas’s early statistical profile suggests efficiency and pace align with Calipari’s system — a modernized offense centered on transition spacing and inside-out play.

Defense remains area for improvement

Defensively, Arkansas forced 10 steals and 4 blocks against Southern, showing flashes of athletic disruption but also occasional lapses in rotation.

The Razorbacks allowed 44 percent shooting from the field, which ranks around the national average.

Their defensive effective field-goal percentage (47.8, 103rd nationally) and turnover creation rate (14.8 percent, 198th) show room to tighten ball pressure.

Calipari has emphasized that defensive communication and on-ball discipline will be key as the Hogs face stronger opponents.

According to Sports Reference, Arkansas ranked in the top 20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last year but struggled at times against high-volume perimeter teams.

Their 2025-26 roster, led by Trevon Brazile and Johnell Davis, brings experience and length to help balance that.

Next test: road trip to Michigan State

Arkansas will next face No. 22 Michigan State on Saturday evening at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

The Spartans, coached by Tom Izzo, opened the season with a win over Eastern Michigan and feature a disciplined half-court attack anchored by veteran guard A.J. Hoggard.

The non-conference showdown will be Arkansas’s first chance to test its metrics against a Top-25 team.

A win in East Lansing would likely boost their KenPom and NET ratings while providing early momentum before Thanksgiving tournament action.

Arkansas will need to maintain its 50 percent shooting average and keep turnover numbers low to compete in a tough road environment.

The Hogs also hope to see continued growth from their frontcourt rotation, which produced a combined 23 rebounds against Southern.

Outlook for the season ahead

Through one game, Arkansas shows the marks of a team that can play fast, share the ball and score in multiple ways.

While the defense will need to evolve, the foundation is strong, a sign of a program that could again contend in the SEC.

Calipari’s teams traditionally improve defensively as the season progresses. If Arkansas maintains its offensive balance and tightens its rotations, it could quickly climb back inside the Top 25 across multiple analytics models.

The upcoming stretch of games — Michigan State, UAB and North Carolina in November — will offer a clear gauge of where the Razorbacks stand among national contenders.

Key takeaways

• Arkansas opened 2025-26 with a 109-77 win over Southern, shooting 50.7 percent from the field.

• Early metrics show strong offensive efficiency but areas for defensive growth.

• The Razorbacks travel to No. 22 Michigan State for an early-season Top 25 test Saturday.