Analytics give Hogs just a slim chance to upset Texas

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas goes to Austin this weekend facing long odds according to the national analytics that size up every college football matchup.

As the Razorbacks try to close out the year with a signature win, the ESPN Matchup Predictor lists their chance to upset Texas at just 16.9 percent, one of the lowest projections of the week.

The Hogs have not beaten a Power Four opponent this season and have lost five games in which they held a double-digit lead.

The inconsistency has pushed Arkansas behind most of the country in the metrics that shape national models.

Defensively, the Razorbacks once surrendered more than 450 yards per game. While the unit has improved, the average still sits around 426 yards, ranking 123rd in the nation.

The offense opened the year among the 10 best in college football, but recent results have dropped the Hogs to No. 25 in scoring.

Texas enters the matchup at No. 23 nationally in total defense, giving up just over 317 yards per game.

That contrast in defensive production is one of the major factors behind the analytics gap heading into Saturday.

In Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, Texas ranks No. 22 while Arkansas is slotted at No. 41 despite having fewer than three wins.

Connelly’s model lists Texas as a 10.5-point favorite and assigns a 73 percent win probability, far higher than what the Razorbacks carry into Austin.

The trip marks the Hogs’ first visit to Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium since 2008.

In the overall series, Texas leads 57-23. A Razorbacks win would be their first victory over the Longhorns during a losing season since 1938.

Texas coach praises Razorbacks’ potential

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said this week that Arkansas’ record does not reflect the level of threat the Razorbacks can pose.

He called the matchup one that requires focus, even after Texas’ 35-10 loss at Georgia.

“Our focus is on what we can control … our preparation and our play this Saturday, against a very, very dangerous Arkansas team,” Sarkisian said.

Sarkisian pointed to the Hogs’ ability to stay close in several games despite their losses.

“They’re a very talented team, well coached … coach Petrino does a heck of a job, in particular on offense, and it shows,” he said.

Arkansas’ late-season climb in defensive performance is viewed with caution by most models, which note that some of the improvement has come against teams outside the upper tiers of the rankings.

But the defensive staff has emphasized consistency in open-field tackling and pass coverage, two areas that had allowed opponents to extend drives earlier in the year.

For the Razorbacks, the Texas game brings both opportunity and a difficult challenge.

With the Longhorns entering the SEC next season, Saturday’s meeting offers an early look at a future conference matchup.

Rivalry matchup brings opportunity

While the statistics favor Texas, the Hogs view the game as a chance to reset after a season marked by narrow finishes.

Arkansas has lost eight one-possession games since last year, including five this season in which it led by at least 10 points.

The Texas defense has been strong against both the run and the pass, limiting explosive plays and winning third-down situations.

The Razorbacks will need to avoid early mistakes to keep the game close, especially on the road.

Historically, the Hogs have played some of their strongest games as underdogs.

Their 2021 home win over Texas, a dominant rushing performance, is still fresh for many players and coaches in the program.

Arkansas hopes to tap into that experience even though rosters on both sides have changed since then.

Both teams have seen their offensive identities challenged in recent weeks. Texas is trying to regain rhythm after its loss to Georgia, while the Razorbacks are searching for the production it had early in the season before the offense slipped in scoring efficiency.

That dynamic leaves room for a closer game if the Hogs can slow Texas’ early drives.

For the Longhorns, controlling possession and limiting turnovers would allow their defense to dictate tempo.

Key takeaways

• National analytics give Arkansas just a 16.9 percent chance to upset Texas.

• SP+ and FPI rank Texas significantly higher than Arkansas on both sides of the ball.

• Texas coach Steve Sarkisian says Arkansas remains a dangerous opponent despite its record.